Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 187.080291 220.795361 260.565691 311.408613 375.355014 454.027282 5.595723e+02
2025-10-26 146.048671 186.763869 240.060596 316.557170 426.317304 582.681734 8.311536e+02
2025-11-02 121.331518 163.991141 224.081833 317.970928 467.002049 705.961210 1.145053e+03
2025-11-09 102.796918 144.737377 207.151771 311.276260 490.440664 807.423372 1.469103e+03
2025-11-16 89.234141 129.837985 193.024876 304.351339 509.613207 905.886914 1.837253e+03
2025-11-23 78.664789 117.622447 180.560865 296.745197 524.326787 999.726758 2.249473e+03
2025-11-30 75.167069 115.964164 184.798043 319.070900 602.100411 1254.692007 3.242758e+03
2025-12-07 69.370835 109.593735 179.754137 322.640099 642.038572 1441.215992 4.210026e+03
2025-12-14 65.048373 105.124612 177.306902 330.650669 694.188840 1683.941865 5.627459e+03
2025-12-21 60.258848 99.209945 171.244663 329.778486 724.974700 1883.822503 7.138442e+03
2025-12-28 58.810747 99.148556 176.327591 354.208816 828.384910 2368.743490 1.080950e+04
2026-01-04 56.866457 97.894696 178.802738 373.225002 924.680320 2901.223193 1.607066e+04
2026-01-11 54.451825 95.608121 179.139438 388.140716 1018.530758 3518.235585 2.420653e+04
2026-01-18 51.712228 92.381055 177.044410 396.672363 1097.398606 4155.235398 3.578077e+04
2026-01-25 48.789219 88.459183 172.869180 398.858065 1156.863908 4769.599486 5.145208e+04
2026-02-01 45.433508 83.305393 165.244750 390.019090 1174.089980 5186.620348 6.811660e+04
2026-02-08 42.408098 78.561171 157.989638 380.843937 1187.398000 5608.178522 9.033077e+04
2026-02-15 39.637565 74.108049 150.891342 370.775377 1193.993792 6007.344605 1.189866e+05
2026-02-22 39.344760 74.956272 156.558661 400.386532 1381.146050 7991.608148 2.647412e+05
2026-03-01 37.721218 72.721124 154.377595 405.135111 1462.538406 9321.454014 4.666004e+05
2026-03-08 36.503674 71.280159 154.012606 415.806889 1579.489765 11266.481869 9.862557e+05
2026-03-15 34.837233 68.672670 150.340394 414.644002 1637.692403 12774.937755 1.887594e+06
2026-03-22 34.697158 69.568023 155.964376 447.303849 1900.553050 17676.361940 1.004198e+07